August 21, 2026
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How Much Should TJX Worry About its Recent US Sales Performance?
It’s well-known that TJX Companies has enjoyed great success over the past few years, often delivering strong quarterly report cards boasting earnings and comparable sales wins. And while that may still be true for many of the company’s markets, its performance stateside — under the Marmaxx division, which includes physical and ecomm business for TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and Sierra — during the second quarter is raising a bit of a hubbub among analysts.
In an August 20 report, Retail Dive’s Daphne Howland outlined that while TJX observed Q2 net sales of over $15 billion alongside sales growth of 5.4% and comparable sales growth of 4%, the numbers were much less inspiring for Marmaxx.
“TJX Companies posted a rare miss on Wednesday, reporting that Q2 comp sales at its U.S. Marmaxx division rose just 1% year over year, well below its own and analyst expectations. Comps in the segment grew 6% last quarter and 3% a year ago,” Howland wrote.
“CEO Ernie Herrman blamed merchandising missteps, telling analysts on a Wednesday call that ‘it’s more about what we didn’t have in the mix,’” she added.
Marmaxx, TJX’s biggest segment combining TJ Maxx and Marshalls, posted second-quarter comparable sales growth of 1 per cent, down from 6 per cent in the previous quarter, after a self-inflicted store-mix slowdown.https://t.co/uQHYRg1e00
— Fibre2Fashion (@fibre2fashion) August 21, 2026
Some interesting highlights presented by the report:
- Certain stores and markets did quite well: HomeGoods (with the HomeSense banner included) saw net sales trend upward by 10% (to $2.5 billion), with strong comp sales improvement of 7%. The Canadian business observed a net sales increase of 6% (to $1.5 billion) and comps ticking up by 6%. Europe plus Australia saw net sales growth of 11% (to more than $2 billion) and a similar comp sales growth figure of 7%.
- This quarterly performance in terms of U.S. comp sales is the worst in a decade: Howland cited Wells Fargo Ike Boruchow on this stat, with the company being “slow to diagnose” the underlying problem at that time. This time around, “we’re aren’t out of the woods yet,” he added.
- Despite the negative, TJX brass still sees brighter skies ahead: On conference call, Herrman indicated that Marmaxx was already experiencing a rebound to kick off the third quarter, and further that “greater improvement by the holiday selling season” was in the cards.
Analysts, including RetailWire BrainTrust panelist and GlobalData managing director Neil Saunders, suggested that TJ Maxx’s value messaging may have been hampered during Q2, particularly given competition from Prime Day and other competing sales — and the performance of Ross may speak to this roaming shoppers’ eye as well.
“Ross should come closer to a 9% comp, and some of that has to be coming from TJX, right?” William Blair analyst Dylan Carden said, per Howland.
In fact, Ross beat even that prediction: Q2 total sales improved by a whopping 13% YoY, and for the first half of 2026, comp sales were up by the exact same figure (13%, or 10% on a quarterly basis). EPS was registered at $4.69 versus $3.03 in the year-prior period, speaking to Ross’ success.
And on the horizon — a continued balancing act between cost-averse and choosy customers and the pressure imposed by tariff costs. The question remains: How concerned shout TJX be about Marmaxx’s performance in the near future, and what can be done to address headwinds?
BrainTrust
Neil Saunders
Managing Director, GlobalData
Gene
Professor, International Business, Guizhou University of Finance & Economics and University of Sanya, China.
Mani Subramaniam
Recent Discussions
Discussion Questions
Should TJX be concerned about its U.S. sales performance in the near-term? Why or why not? What steps can it take to improve numbers?
Which factor(s) do you believe are pulling down Marmaxx’s performance figures most obviously? Are there any other headwinds not mentioned?
Do you believe CEO Ernie Herrman when he indicates merchandising missteps as a primary cause of the recent faltering?
Poll
Overall, TJX’s performance was solid. But, mixed in with strongly advancing divisions was an uncharacteristically soft performance from TJMaxx and Marshalls. This is concerning as those two chains are the backbone of the business. However, there are multiple factors driving the weaker figures, some of which are temporary and some of which are more persistent challenges. The more temporary issue came from a weak assortment that didn’t have enough desirable brands and wasn’t focused enough on an early back-to-school season. TJX has now remedied that; from our data, trading has already picked up as a result and should allow for a better Q3. The more persistent problem comes from a resurgent Ross and more discounting in mainstream retail. The latter will likely unwind a bit over the rest of this year. The former is a newer challenge that requires TJX to raise its game.
Define “concerned”
Should they be concerned that they’re in a competitive market, and that the same forces – a lackluster economy(for much of the population), persistent inflation and the decline of tradtional soft-goods retailers (macy*s, JCP) – which drive customers to them will also drive customers to those competitors?
That just because they’ve been doing great for years is no assurance that they’ll continue to do so ?
Yes, of course they should…but that’s because competent retailers should always be concerned by those things. It has little to do with the specifics of (mere) quarterly performance.
Merchandising missteps are fixable, and the fact that they’ve already diagnosed the problem and are seeing a rebound to start Q3 is encouraging. This looks more like a one-off executional hiccup.
TJX should be concerned. Marmaxx’s result exposes a wider challenge for off-price retail. Ross and Burlington are expanding. JCPenney is attacking missing sizes and wasted trips. Its campaign has not yet shown a gain in market share. Low prices and branded goods may no longer guarantee frequent visits.
TJX’s figures make that warning specific. Marmaxx’s 1% comparable-sales gain came from a higher basket, while customer transactions fell. TJX also reported that inventory per store rose 2% overall. Branded goods remained widely available. The sector appears to have enough merchandise. Competitive advantage will come from choosing the right goods and moving them quickly to local markets.
Herrman’s explanation is credible. TJX should shorten the feedback path from stores to buyers. Regional teams should move stock when local gaps appear. Strong off-price retailers will preserve discovery while making each trip more dependable. That combination can protect traffic without forcing heavier markdowns.
Herrman’s candor on the merchandising miss is credible, and the Q3 rebound is encouraging. But falling transactions deserve the most attention. Marmaxx’s model runs on repeat visits powered by discovery, and that mechanism is under stress. Ross’ 13% comp demands a closer read. The growth is traffic-led, built on new customer acquisition plus higher repeat engagement, and driven deliberately through marketing investment and in-store experience work that Conroy has been executing since taking the CEO role in early 2025. That is not a one-quarter anomaly. It is a trend line that has been building for four straight quarters.
The longer-run challenge is that Ross is now actively earning each visit while Marmaxx relies on shoppers arriving on discovery impulse. Those are different operating philosophies, and the traffic data is rewarding the former.
Perhaps the U.S. economy is worse than the headlines suggest when off-price retail starts to hurt in an economic environment that should be driving shoppers to it.
I am not a fan of quarterly GDP reporting, but the reported 1.5% growth, which includes massive spending by companies on AI development and the Iran War, makes one wonder what the real numbers might be telling us.
The combination of falling transactions, rising inventory and Ross’s 13% comps are reason for eye-popping concern. I’m not worried about TJX’s long term health, but a shaky economy and brutal competition in the off-price sector won’t be making things easy any time soon. Maybe (hopefully), we are tip-toeing into a new paradigm.
“Merchandising missteps” is an interesting way of putting it. Was that about bad decisions on Marmaxx’x part, or was that them knowing exactly what they wanted and they couldn’t get it? Are some brands figuring out that supplying Marmaxx with their most on-trend product might not be in their (the brands) best long term interest…???
And in addition to brutal competition in the off-price market, wouldn’t it be great if the middle market offered up their version of brutal competition? Not price competition, but shopping experience competition. Wouldn’t it be great if the middle market stabilized a bit? Stabilized…no pipe dreams about returning to any semblance of the good old days. Isn’t a healthy middle market part of what gives the off-price market its value equation?
The merchants at TJX are damned good at what they do. This seems more complicated than merchandising missteps.
TJX should not be too worried, but it should pay attention. Off-price retail is still well positioned because customers remain value-focused, but weak U.S. apparel performance shows that even TJX has to get the assortment right.
The strength of the model is the treasure hunt. The risk is that the hunt becomes less exciting if the product mix, brands, or freshness miss the mark. Customers may want value, but they still need a reason to visit often.
TJX has earned a lot of confidence, so one soft spot is not a major warning sign. The bigger test is whether it can keep value and newness working together as shoppers become more selective.
While TJX has a challenging period, it is too early to ring the alarm bells. They are updating their stores which is good, but they are facing headwinds from Ross who just had a great quarter. There is obviously headwinds with the economy and the rising cost of living for most consumers, but TJX will always be in the mix as consumers look for as much value as they can find.
TJX should be concerned, but not alarmed yet. Marmaxx’s weak U.S. comp shows merchandising and value perception slipped at a time when off-price should be winning, especially with Ross performing so strongly.
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Overall, TJX’s performance was solid. But, mixed in with strongly advancing divisions was an uncharacteristically soft performance from TJMaxx and Marshalls. This is concerning as those two chains are the backbone of the business. However, there are multiple factors driving the weaker figures, some of which are temporary and some of which are more persistent challenges. The more temporary issue came from a weak assortment that didn’t have enough desirable brands and wasn’t focused enough on an early back-to-school season. TJX has now remedied that; from our data, trading has already picked up as a result and should allow for a better Q3. The more persistent problem comes from a resurgent Ross and more discounting in mainstream retail. The latter will likely unwind a bit over the rest of this year. The former is a newer challenge that requires TJX to raise its game.
Define “concerned”
Should they be concerned that they’re in a competitive market, and that the same forces – a lackluster economy(for much of the population), persistent inflation and the decline of tradtional soft-goods retailers (macy*s, JCP) – which drive customers to them will also drive customers to those competitors?
That just because they’ve been doing great for years is no assurance that they’ll continue to do so ?
Yes, of course they should…but that’s because competent retailers should always be concerned by those things. It has little to do with the specifics of (mere) quarterly performance.
Merchandising missteps are fixable, and the fact that they’ve already diagnosed the problem and are seeing a rebound to start Q3 is encouraging. This looks more like a one-off executional hiccup.
TJX should be concerned. Marmaxx’s result exposes a wider challenge for off-price retail. Ross and Burlington are expanding. JCPenney is attacking missing sizes and wasted trips. Its campaign has not yet shown a gain in market share. Low prices and branded goods may no longer guarantee frequent visits.
TJX’s figures make that warning specific. Marmaxx’s 1% comparable-sales gain came from a higher basket, while customer transactions fell. TJX also reported that inventory per store rose 2% overall. Branded goods remained widely available. The sector appears to have enough merchandise. Competitive advantage will come from choosing the right goods and moving them quickly to local markets.
Herrman’s explanation is credible. TJX should shorten the feedback path from stores to buyers. Regional teams should move stock when local gaps appear. Strong off-price retailers will preserve discovery while making each trip more dependable. That combination can protect traffic without forcing heavier markdowns.
Herrman’s candor on the merchandising miss is credible, and the Q3 rebound is encouraging. But falling transactions deserve the most attention. Marmaxx’s model runs on repeat visits powered by discovery, and that mechanism is under stress. Ross’ 13% comp demands a closer read. The growth is traffic-led, built on new customer acquisition plus higher repeat engagement, and driven deliberately through marketing investment and in-store experience work that Conroy has been executing since taking the CEO role in early 2025. That is not a one-quarter anomaly. It is a trend line that has been building for four straight quarters.
The longer-run challenge is that Ross is now actively earning each visit while Marmaxx relies on shoppers arriving on discovery impulse. Those are different operating philosophies, and the traffic data is rewarding the former.
Perhaps the U.S. economy is worse than the headlines suggest when off-price retail starts to hurt in an economic environment that should be driving shoppers to it.
I am not a fan of quarterly GDP reporting, but the reported 1.5% growth, which includes massive spending by companies on AI development and the Iran War, makes one wonder what the real numbers might be telling us.
The combination of falling transactions, rising inventory and Ross’s 13% comps are reason for eye-popping concern. I’m not worried about TJX’s long term health, but a shaky economy and brutal competition in the off-price sector won’t be making things easy any time soon. Maybe (hopefully), we are tip-toeing into a new paradigm.
“Merchandising missteps” is an interesting way of putting it. Was that about bad decisions on Marmaxx’x part, or was that them knowing exactly what they wanted and they couldn’t get it? Are some brands figuring out that supplying Marmaxx with their most on-trend product might not be in their (the brands) best long term interest…???
And in addition to brutal competition in the off-price market, wouldn’t it be great if the middle market offered up their version of brutal competition? Not price competition, but shopping experience competition. Wouldn’t it be great if the middle market stabilized a bit? Stabilized…no pipe dreams about returning to any semblance of the good old days. Isn’t a healthy middle market part of what gives the off-price market its value equation?
The merchants at TJX are damned good at what they do. This seems more complicated than merchandising missteps.
TJX should not be too worried, but it should pay attention. Off-price retail is still well positioned because customers remain value-focused, but weak U.S. apparel performance shows that even TJX has to get the assortment right.
The strength of the model is the treasure hunt. The risk is that the hunt becomes less exciting if the product mix, brands, or freshness miss the mark. Customers may want value, but they still need a reason to visit often.
TJX has earned a lot of confidence, so one soft spot is not a major warning sign. The bigger test is whether it can keep value and newness working together as shoppers become more selective.
While TJX has a challenging period, it is too early to ring the alarm bells. They are updating their stores which is good, but they are facing headwinds from Ross who just had a great quarter. There is obviously headwinds with the economy and the rising cost of living for most consumers, but TJX will always be in the mix as consumers look for as much value as they can find.
TJX should be concerned, but not alarmed yet. Marmaxx’s weak U.S. comp shows merchandising and value perception slipped at a time when off-price should be winning, especially with Ross performing so strongly.